Midterm elections 2018 polls registration#
Midterm elections 2018 polls plus#

House of Representatives ultimately depends on voters in 435 individual districts. 4-12, 2018ĭespite the sitting president's impact on midterm elections, and despite the influence of the state of the national economy, majority control of the U.S. Also, almost two-thirds of Americans today consider it a good time to find a quality job - while ahead of Obama's first midterm, nearly nine in 10 thought it was a bad time to find a quality job.Įconomic conditions: Oct. Gallup's latest economic confidence measure, from early September, finds 51% of Americans rating the economy as 'excellent' or 'good.' By contrast, just 12% rated the economy positively in October 2010, shortly before Obama's party lost 63 House seats. The economic condition of the country is usually at or near the top of the list of deciding factors in all elections, and was certainly important in the party reversals that occurred in the 19 midterms.Ĭomparing today's economic environment to that of the most recent of these transformative elections - Barack Obama's first midterm in 2010 - reveals dramatically different situations. Voters have many issues to consider in 2018, including the president's personality and style, immigration reform, race relations, healthcare, and their dissatisfaction with government leadership overall, to name a few.Īn additional factor that has to be weighed in any midterm calculus is the economy. These factors tend to indicate a significant seat loss for Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections, with recent Gallup analysis noting the president's party loses an average 37 House seats when his job approval is below 50%. Trump's job approval has been wavering at or below 40%, and polls summarized on Real Clear Politics indicate the GOP is averaging an eight-point deficit on the generic ballot among registered voters. At the time, Trump was below 40% job approval and Republicans were trailing on the generic ballot by about eight points, on average.Īfter some improvement over the summer, both indicators are back to baseline.

Midterm elections 2018 polls plus#

17, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.18 percentage points.In January, I asked whether President Donald Trump can ' defy the odds once again,' this time overcoming the historical pattern of heavy midterm losses for unpopular presidents. The Harvard poll - which surveyed 2,003 adults, ages 18 to 29 - was conducted online between Oct. “Our candidates and political parties would benefit tremendously from paying close attention to what is now the largest bloc of potential voters in America.”

“More than ever, young voters have shown they are ready to stand up and be heard,” Institute of Politics Director Mark Gearan said in a statement. And there has been a wave of activism by young people, particularly around the issue of gun control in the wake of the February shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School.

Midterm elections 2018 polls registration#

A record 800,000 people registered to vote on National Voter Registration Day in September. Other factors have provided some evidence of a possible surge in voter turnout this year. Overall, 66% of respondents supported Democrats taking back control of Congress, compared to 32% for Republican control.īoth Republicans and Democrats have hyped the importance of these midterm elections, with former President Barack Obama saying it would be “ profoundly dangerous” not to vote, and President Donald Trump - who still suffers from low approval among young Americans - saying it “may be the most important midterm election that anybody can remember.” In this year’s poll, a larger percentage of young Democrats (54%) than young Republicans (43%) indicated they were likely to vote, but Republicans saw more of a bump in enthusiasm since the spring, the poll found. That year, the Harvard Institute of Politics poll had predicted 49% of 18 to 29-year-olds would be voting.

In the 2016 presidential election, 46.1% of adults under 30 voted - an increase from 2012, but still the lowest turnout rate of any age group, according to U.S. In the 2014 midterm elections, 19.9% of adults under 30 voted - “the lowest rate of youth turnout recorded in the in the past 40 years,” according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.